Pattern emergence - seeing the future now
Published on September 25,
2015
The views, thoughts and ideas expressed in this blog post are
solely my personal opinion and thoughts, no way reflects any connection to past
or current employers. These thoughts are for discussion purposes with industry
peers as an open forum for sharing ideas that are non-proprietary in nature.
I am often asked, " How do you know what is next, the
simple answer is you look for it. Seems easy right - you just read the
tealeaves and they tell you what will be the next emerging trend. I know I
sound glib but it is a skill that you can teach yourself. While there are trend
spotters out there, I am referring to a strategic approach that will provide a
steady flow of possible paths for you to grow your business. I will share how
to find these next opportunities; I will not be sharing which exact resources I
use to determine what is next for my business.
"Seeing the future now" is a mantra we use in our
industry to identifying the next segments, products, concepts and process for
our business. The key to success is to see patterns emerging in any give topic,
subject or genre that you have determined to look for in the great wide world.
Which is much easier now with the Internet, you can visit the world on a
virtual basis within an hour and spot possible emerging channels, paths or new
ideas that you can use in your business.
How do you see what is next before it has gone mainstream,
look for a pattern of emerging ideas. Observation is the single most important
skill to develop for you to be successful. You have to travel, either virtually
or physically to make these observations. Watch for clues and common themes
that are all around us. To truly be able to see the future now you have to look
everyday and watch for the subtle changes in the ether. I spend one to two
hours everyday observing and cataloging what I am watching or seeing in the
global market place.
Where do you observe? Everywhere, the broader you cast your
net for observations the more likely you will see patterns forming and
emerging. Developing this skill will allow you to become very good at identifying
new opportunities for your business. Identifying early adopters is an important
key to where a new idea/ product is in the market place cycle. The harder part
is getting others to believe or buy-in to what you have identified.
Unfortunately the only way to do that is to build a solid track record by
providing examples of your predictions becoming reality. Once you have built
credibility it is much easier to get buy off on the new ideas you have
uncovered. Sometimes you have to track these observations and note what you see
to even proven it to yourself. Most times it can take three to six months to
identify an emerging idea, maybe longer. The final determining factor of
whether you should pursue the new idea is the level of risk/ reward your organization
embraces. This is the decision point of whether you are an innovator or someone
that simply talks about innovation. In most cases in the restaurant industry,
innovation is talked about not embraced as part of the culture. We tend to be
very risk averse since we work with very narrow margins. To truly be an
innovative company you have to live the mindset each and everyday. Pattern
emergence is one of the tools of a successful innovator that creates new
channels or disruption that creates growth.
So here are the steps to seeing the future
Define goals or strategies
Observe
Catalog observations
Look for patterns – they are there
Define patterns you see
Track patterns
Decide the tipping point for the idea
Prototype the emerging idea in the context of your
business
Present to team for buy in
Rapid test the idea to fail fast and forward (learn and
adjust)
Risk/ reward analysis
Implement
Measure impact/ success
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